After a Guilty Plea, Prejudice Means You Would Have Gone to Trial

A § 2255 claim that a lawyer's mistake led to a guilty plea needs proof of one specific thing: that, without the mistake, the person would have turned down the plea and gone to trial. On October 23, 2026, the Fifth Circuit affirmed the denial of a § 2255 motion in United States v. Shelton, No. 25-40456, because the prisoner never argued or showed that. The opinion is unpublished and not binding precedent, but the rule it applies comes from the Supreme Court.

What happened

Michael Jason Shelton pleaded guilty to being an accessory after the fact to murder under 18 U.S.C. § 3 and was sentenced to 180 months in prison and three years of supervised release. His direct appeal was dismissed in 2021.

With a lawyer's help, he then filed a motion under 28 U.S.C. § 2255 raising ineffective assistance of counsel claims. The district court denied the motion and refused a certificate of appealability. The Fifth Circuit granted a certificate on one claim: that his trial lawyer should have moved to dismiss because the statute of limitations had run before he was indicted.

The rule

Every ineffective assistance claim has two parts under Strickland v. Washington, 466 U.S. 668 (1984): deficient performance and prejudice. "A failure to establish either deficient performance or prejudice defeats the claim," the Fifth Circuit noted.

For a guilty plea, the Supreme Court set the prejudice test in Hill v. Lockhart, 474 U.S. 52 (1985). The defendant "must show that there is a reasonable probability that, but for counsel's errors, he would not have pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial."

In Lee v. United States, 582 U.S. 357 (2017), the Court added that courts "should not upset a plea solely because of post hoc assertions from a defendant about how he would have pleaded but for his attorney's deficiencies." Instead, they "should look to contemporaneous evidence to substantiate a defendant's expressed preferences."

What the court decided

The court did not decide whether the lawyer should have raised the limitations defense. It held that Shelton "does not argue and has not shown" a reasonable probability that he "would not have pleaded guilty and would have insisted on going to trial." Without that showing, the claim failed, and the court affirmed.

What this means for a § 2255 motion

• Plead prejudice in the Hill terms. A motion attacking a guilty plea should say, in plain words, that the person would have rejected the plea and gone to trial, and explain why.
• Back it with evidence from the time. Under Lee, letters, emails, notes of plea discussions, statements at the plea hearing and the strength of the defense being given up can support the claim. A sworn statement written years later, standing alone, may not be enough.
• Brief every element on appeal. The certificate of appealability got Shelton's claim to the court of appeals, but the brief still had to argue prejudice. An element left out of the brief can decide the case.
• Watch the deadline. A § 2255 motion generally must be filed within one year under § 2255(f). Our guide to the § 2255 statute of limitations explains when that clock starts.

Our guides to ineffective assistance of counsel claims and Strickland v. Washington cover the two-part test in more detail.